Nornickel’s climate change adaptation efforts

Permafrost monitoring

The Norilsk production site is located in the permafrost zone. Permafrost conditions in the Norilsk Industrial District are highly heterogeneous: the thickness of permafrost ranges from 5 m to over 500 m, while the average annual ground temperature varies from –7 °C to +2 °C. Rising air temperatures result in permafrost warming, which may compromise the stability of the Company’s infrastructure.

Over the past 65 years (since 1959), ground temperature at a depth of 10 m has increased by 4.3 °C. Significant temperature fluctuations have been recorded down to a depth of 90 m, while at greater depths (up to 200 m), the average temperature change has reached 0.3 °C. To support ongoing monitoring of these processes and manage the risks associated with permafrost thawing, Nornickel is deploying a monitoring system comprising the following two interconnected components.

Geotechnical monitoring system – its main purpose is to monitor the technical condition of foundations and load‑bearing structures of buildings and structures and promptly identify any operational risks. The Company has been implementing this system in‑house since 2020.

Background permafrost monitoring system – this component focuses mostly on applying scientific methods to assess the state of permafrost and forecast its condition over the longer term in the natural landscapes of the Norilsk Industrial District, beyond the urban area. The system has been deployed in partnership with Fedorovsky Polar State University since 2023.

All information is stored and processed in a unified information and diagnostic system (IDS) deployed at the Company’s Norilsk site, enabling the use of these data to support management decision making.

Permafrost monitoring system

Geotechnical monitoring system

The system monitors the condition of foundations and load‑bearing structures of the Company’s core production and infrastructure facilities.

It has been deployed in five phases.

1. A network of observation thermometric wells was restored, and engineering and geological surveys were conducted.
2. Inspections of foundations of buildings and structures were carried out.
3. Some buildings and structures were equipped with automated measurement systems.
4. The results of these measurements were integrated into the information and diagnostic system.
5. Geotechnical monitoring data were incorporated into the processes for planning and carrying out repairs.

The information and diagnostic system is used at 17 of the Company’s enterprises. Around 1 thousand facilities are connected to it, with automated monitoring in place at 222 of them; data for the remaining facilities are entered manually. The total budget for the project is approximately RUB 3 billion.

The Building and Structure Monitoring System project has been repeatedly recognised by the expert community as a breakthrough solution that leverages advanced technologies and has the potential to be scaled across the entire Russian Arctic.

Background permafrost monitoring system

Background permafrost monitoring enables the assessment of permafrost degradation trends in natural landscapes outside urban areas.

The system has been deployed in five phases.

1. An approach to background monitoring was developed, and representative locations were selected for permafrost research sites.
2. Laboratory analyses of soils from the permafrost research sites were conducted.
3. The research sites were equipped with measuring instruments.
4. Systems were put in place to collect and store measurement data.
5. Soil models for the research sites were created, and projected changes in temperature patterns were calculated through 2100.

The approach to background monitoring was developed in collaboration with Fedorovsky Polar State University. Nornickel carried out engineering and geological surveys at the permafrost research sites, drilling 20 monitoring wells 10–20 m deep and three additional wells to a depth of 200 m.

As a result, a landscape map of the Norilsk Industrial District was produced, with the characteristics, composition, and properties of the soils and vegetation identified – forming the basis for mathematical modelling. Modelling of changes in the mean annual ground temperature at a 10 m depth was based on regional climate projections under the SSP5‑8.5 scenario, previously developed by the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Initial results indicate that by 2050, ground temperatures are projected to rise across the entire Norilsk Industrial District. For instance, zones with low temperatures (from –3 °C to –4 °C) at 10 m depth – covering up to 18% of the area in 2024 – are expected to vanish completely. The proportion of intermittently frozen ground with temperatures ranging from +1 °C to –0.5 °C is projected to grow from 20% to 33% of total area by 2050, with sustained thawing expected in 20% of those areas.