Sustainability assessment of Nornickel’s product portfolio
One of the key drivers of Nornickel’s long‑term strategy is the growing demand for the Company’s metals to support the development of a low‑carbon economy. By supplying green metals to the market, the Company is already actively contributing to the global transition to cleaner modes of transport and renewable energy.
| Factors | Ni | Pd/Pt | Cu |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growth of battery electric vehicle (BEV) market share | |||
| Expansion of the hybrid vehicle market | |||
| Growth of the fuel cell market and the hydrogen economy | |||
| Increased power generation from renewables / low‑carbon fuels | |||
| Expansion of energy‑storage and charging infrastructure to support growth in EVs | |||
| Net effect |
To assess market‑related transition risks and opportunities, Nornickel modelled changes in demand for key metals under its three proprietary global economy and climate change scenarios.
Based on the updated 2024 scenarios, the Company revised its metal consumption forecasts.
Nickel
Nickel is a key material for the production of stainless steel, which is widely used across various sectors – from mechanical engineering and construction to renewable energy. In addition, nickel is a primary metal used in the production of next‑ and future‑generation batteries, which in turn are crucial for the development of electrified transport.
Despite strong decarbonisation efforts and a shift to electric vehicles in the Rapid Transition scenario, higher nickel demand is expected in the Sustainable Palladium scenario due to faster GDP growth and greater production of electric vehicles, and under the Global Growth scenario on the back of a significant increase in demand for the metal from the stainless steel and alloy industries.
Nickel forecasts have been revised slightly upwards: in the Rapid Transition scenario, this is driven by projected higher consumption in the renewable energy sector, while in the Sustainable Palladium scenario, it reflects rising global sales of electric vehicles.
Copper
Copper is a critical metal for the transition to a low‑carbon future, widely used in high‑tech equipment, including components for renewable energy systems. More than 70% of global copper output is used in the production of cable and wire products. Copper consumption is expected to at least double by 2050.
Similar to the nickel demand outlook, higher GDP growth and greater electrification of transport are expected to drive increased long‑term copper consumption under the Sustainable Palladium scenario compared to the Rapid Transition scenario. The highest demand for copper is projected under the Global Growth scenario, supported by the strongest GDP growth and the resulting peak copper needs in sectors such as transport, air conditioning and refrigeration, construction, heavy engineering, and consumer goods.
The downward revision in copper consumption forecasts reflects a reassessment of the intensity of copper use in electric vehicles, solar panels, and wind power, as well as a lower projected average annual global GDP growth rate.
Palladium
More than 80% of medium‑term palladium demand is driven by catalytic converters (“catalysts”), primarily used in petrol engines, including hybrids. The installation of catalysts in vehicles is mandatory and legally regulated in most countries. The remaining share of palladium consumption comes from the electronics, dental, jewellery, chemical, and pharmaceutical industries. Palladium also has potential applications in technologies for long‑distance hydrogen transportation and purification.
In the Sustainable Palladium scenario, which the Company has adopted as the most likely, demand for palladium remains stable through to 2050, supported by the continued high share of ICE vehicles and moderate electrification of transport.
The lowest demand for palladium is expected under the Rapid Transition (green) scenario, which assumes a decline in the total number of vehicles and a gradual phase‑out of ICE cars in key global economies.
The highest demand is expected in the Global Growth scenario, driven by robust GDP growth and strong demand for palladium, primarily in the transport sector due to increased hybrid vehicle production, as well as in the jewellery industry.
In the updated Sustainable Palladium scenario, the forecast for ICE vehicle sales has been revised downward, which negatively impacted the palladium demand outlook. Conversely, in the Rapid Transition scenario, the outlook for palladium has improved due to an expected uptick in ICE vehicle sales. In the Global Growth scenario, however, a decline in palladium consumption in other sectors by 2050 is attributed to a lower average annual global GDP growth rate.
Platinum
40% of platinum consumption comes from the automotive industry, where it is used in catalytic converters for vehicles with internal combustion engines, including hybrids. A further 25% of platinum demand comes from the jewellery industry. Platinum is also used in the glass and electronics industries. In addition, platinum is a critical component of catalysts used in electrolysers for green hydrogen production and in fuel cells deployed in both transport and stationary hydrogen energy systems.
Platinum demand is expected to increase across all scenarios. In the Global Growth and Sustainable Palladium scenarios, demand is primarily driven by the continued high share of ICE vehicle production.
The Rapid Transition scenario is projected to show the highest demand by 2050. Despite a decline in ICE vehicle sales, this scenario sees stronger growth in hydrogen energy and the fuel cell market, leading to greater platinum demand compared to the other two scenarios.
The downward revision of platinum consumption forecasts across all updated scenarios is attributed to a lower average annual global GDP growth outlook, as well as increased substitution of platinum with palladium in automotive catalysts. In the Rapid Transition scenario, the decline is further driven by lower sales projections for hydrogen‑powered vehicles. In the Sustainable Palladium scenario, it stems from reduced forecasts for ICE vehicle sales, while in Global Growth, it reflects a downward revision in overall vehicle sales.
